Politics Warning - Hong Kong unrest, one year on

"Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever" (superchan7) 07/29/2020 at 17:31 • Filed to: Politics, Hong Kong, hong kong protests, China, Jyna

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Covid things have put a bit of a damper on the unrest, but the situation has evolved significantly since the original protests in June 2019. I figure it’s a good time to update for anyone with an interest in how things are going over there. Various notable events came and went, but I’m going to be as factual as I can, clearly labelling my personal opinions.

To recap, the original protests were against an extradition amendment to take care of a murder suspect who killed his preggo girlfriend—while they were on holiday in Taiwan. The amendment would cover both Taiwan and China, and it triggered some of Hong Kong’s biggest protests ever. People were concerned with extraditing to judicial systems that are not as transparent as Hong Kong’s, and I certainly shared that concern.

After several *mostly peaceful* protests, the bill was suspended in late June, and its complete withdrawal was announced in September 2019. But the protests continued and flared into riots, even after the goal was achieved.

(BEGIN DISCLAIMER) This is when I stopped identifying with or supporting the protest movement. (END DISCLAIMER)

The protest movement have “Five Demands.” My opinion in parentheses:

1. Withdrawal of the extradition amendment (done)
2. Inquiry into police brutality during the protests (the kind of brutality where nobody dies in over a year?)
3. Police retraction of the “riot” label (in the face of countless videos of people assaulting and ambushing officers with weapons? You want to call it a picnic?)
4. Amnesty for arrested protesters (see #3. Those are the ones in jail, not the normal protesters)
5. Expanded direct elections (for the uninitiated, Hong Kong is a partial democracy. OK, fair, but not even related)

As the sporadic (mostly weekends) violence took over Hong Kong, the mainstream protest crowd faded back into normal life, and the movement became dominated by students. Unsurprisingly, their actions became more controversial.

Online, laughably obvious fake news proliferated on my Facebook feed, about police killing and raping thousands, randomly kidnapping students to send to “China,” spies posing as cops, you name it, they can’t identify a single victim. The protesters also doxxed several cops, resulting in harassment to officers’ families at home and their kids at school.

On the streets, people get assaulted by getting into disagreements with protest groups, or by attempting to pass a roadblock. The attackers shield themselves with umbrellas while beating the victim until they hear cops. Protesters dress up as journalists (with vests and fake passes) to harass police and provoke an “assault on journalists.”

The protesters issued another demand, this time of the public, including you and me. Unless you read the local news, you may not know about the “Yellow Economic Circle”:

Basically, they compiled a list of businesses that have declared “support” for the protesters. This list was spread on social media, asking people to only patronise “yellow” businesses. Meanwhile, they sent vandals out to wreck any business they perceive to be non-yellow, or even any chains with mainland Chinese investment ( because hating China is now officially in, bruh ). This includes major foreign brands such as Starbucks and Yoshinoya, many branches of whom were broken into and torched. In many cases, attacks occur in broad daylight, with customers inside . They also sometimes hit the wrong guys, so their Terrorist Level is not quite 9000.

This was the single most abhorrent thing I have ever seen the protest movement do—they spent all year telling us that “China is plotting to take away our freedoms,” while assaulting those very freedoms as we speak.

Another notable incident was the “siege” of two universities, which occurred in November when students barricaded themselves for weeks and claimed that they would be killed ( the melodrama ). They launched projectiles and firebombs at the cops, but eventually starved themselves into surrender, leaving a burnt wreck of a campus. Minors were let go with an ID recording (opinion: kid gloves, so brutal).

Fast-forward to 2020 and new slogans began to appear. “Hong Kong Independence” is now in style. The Tiananmen Square memorial on June 4th was hijacked by independence flags and slogans. Personally, I was disgusted by the lack of respect for those who lost their lives in Beijing. This is the only place in China where commemorating the event is allowed, and they made it about themselves.

In late May, China surprised everyone by announcing new National Security laws for Hong Kong, to officially ban treason, secession, collusion with foreign governments and political terrorism. It would be inserted per Article 3 of Hong Kong’s constitution as an item of “defence and foreign affairs,” which is an area reserved by Beijing. Several overtly secessionist political parties immediately disbanded to avoid disqualification in future elections.

This shocked the protest movement and even the Hong Kong government itself. The laws took effect on July 1st. The same day, a motorcyclist waving a “Liberate Hong Kong” flag rammed a group of police officers during a protest. This glorious example of cannon fodder became the first person to be charged with the new laws.

My analysis: “ T hey done played themselves ”

Chinese officials let on that they began work on the new laws in November, when the university sieges showed Hong Kong’s inability to address the unrest even after the extradition bill was killed. The decision was reaffirmed by the appearance of secession slogans in 2020. It appears that the protest movement made a strategic mistake and gambled too hard when they could have claimed victory in 2019.

In hindsight, people really should’ve stopped rioting when the extradition bill was withdrawn. Now all they have to show for it is a National Security Law that specifically targets them.

What it means to me, personally:

In a move that surprised even myself, numerous businesses have renounced their membership of the “Yellow Economic Circle.” Once Covid-19 is in better shape, I can finally plan my next trip and not have to worry about where to eat. I still have to watch my mouth in public, but hopefully that changes soon too.

I’m not a fan of new laws, and I’m sure none of you are either. But they are just tools that I hope will be used sparingly and for the greater good of a traumatised community.

I know that American and European news present a very different, simplified narrative of the events in Hong Kong. Even if you don’t agree with my take, I hope you can at least see that it comes from honest thought that I put, every day, into a place that I hold dear.

Let Hong Kong heal.

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/29/2020 at 17:40

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2- you think theres no brutality if nobody  dies?

how american of you

dogisbadob > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/29/2020 at 17:40

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Than k you for sharing

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/29/2020 at 17:46

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As someone who has visited Hong Kong, and has a teacher he considers a friend there, the loss of freedom of speech is the saddest thing for me.

When does China’s Social Credit System get put in place in HK?

kleeBRZ > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/29/2020 at 17:48

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thanks for the briefing.  I’ve been trying to follow the best I could, keeping up with my relatives over there.

For Sweden > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 17:52

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Does having a few dozen project cars in your yard help or hurt the social credit score?

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > For Sweden 07/29/2020 at 17:55

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Well, jaywalking lowers your score, so if working on those cars keeps you out of the street...

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 18:02

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There is no plan to China’s social credit system, or anything of the sort, to HK.

Can you elaborate what freedom of speech was lost? Because to me, campaigning and organising a secession doesn’t fall into that bucket. I do recognise that Scotland had a referendum on whether to leave the UK, but I also note that Spain had no such patience for Catalonia.  Going back further, we here in ‘Murica didn’t really like secession either.

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 07/29/2020 at 18:04

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That’s not what I said. Brutality is relative, and what happened there is, quite frankly, mild compared to civil unrest in other modern countries. I haven’t even gotten to what goes on right here in ‘Murica.

This is what we'll show whenever you publish anything on Kinja: > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/29/2020 at 18:05

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Ftccp

DipodomysDeserti > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/29/2020 at 18:05

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What’s the over-under on the CCP sticking Hong Kongers in concentration camps like they did to the Uigers?

I support anything anyone can do to fuck with the CCP.

Distraxi's idea of perfection is a Jagroen > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/29/2020 at 18:11

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Thanks for the update. As it happens, I was just discussing with Mrs Distraxi a couple of days ago the fact that the Hong Kong protests had dropped off the news radar and we didn’t know what’d happened, and she was going to reach out to an ex-colleague who’s now HK based to find out. So this is a timely take for me.

We just suspended our extradition treaty with HK due to the new security  law, which has got the Chinese embas sy all offended in a newswort hy fashion , hence the discussion in the Distraxi household about the protests.

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > This is what we'll show whenever you publish anything on Kinja: 07/29/2020 at 18:12

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You can probably get away with that even in Beijing.

This is what we'll show whenever you publish anything on Kinja: > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/29/2020 at 18:21

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Once maybe, very quietly. Lol

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > DipodomysDeserti 07/29/2020 at 18:23

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I don’t see how Xinjiang can be extrapolated to Hong Kong. They aren’t the same issue—you could ask the same question of Taiwan, Japan or India, or the US, or any region that has squabbled with China for decades.

As for Xinjiang itself, I would prefer to save that for another discussion.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > DipodomysDeserti 07/29/2020 at 18:26

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OH, I’d bet the most vocal Hong Kongers are already sitting somewhere with all those first-wave Wuhan research docs that nobody has seen for 8 months.

This all gets real if they try to strong-arm Taiwan.

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > Distraxi's idea of perfection is a Jagroen 07/29/2020 at 18:33

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Yes, even in the US, there has been some consulate wars with China—over here, the issue is way beyond HK and is at the trade war level.

Several times over the past year, aspiring politicians (i.e. not representatives of HK) met US officials to advocate sanctioning Hong Kong and China. They won’t be able to do that anymore, under the new laws.

Do try to catch up with your contact in HK and see how they’re doing , and also f eel free to ask me anything you’re curious about . I promise a basic level of respect even if you want to disagree.

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > kleeBRZ 07/29/2020 at 18:35

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Sure thing. It was a challenge to condense so many events for a worldwide audience, but I think it will help myself as a reference as HK’s situation evolves . I sure am bummed at not being able to go back this year.

DipodomysDeserti > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/29/2020 at 19:17

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You have a totalitarian regime who has no problem putting it’s own citizens into concentration camps. Any reports coming from them should be viewed as highly suspect.

The US has never really squabbled with China . We played ball so our companies could use the CCP to exploit Chinese workers.

To me, China represents the worst tendencies of run away capitalism. It doesn’t surprise when rich Chinese come to the defense of the CCP.

People should do everything possible to resist them.

fintail > DipodomysDeserti 07/29/2020 at 19:28

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And the reg ime in DC will still permit pay-for-play residency to be sold to virtually unvetted parties from PRC, no doubt. Jared was hawking it not long ago. We need that money to be laundered/parked in west coast real estate, keeps parts of the economy humming.

Distraxi's idea of perfection is a Jagroen > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/29/2020 at 19:33

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No danger of a trade war here. They’re a bazillion times bigger than us, are our main trading partner, and we’re one of the very few countries in the world that has a trade sur plus with them , so any war would be short and messy (for us, at least). NZ fancies itself as bei ng something of a moral leader among the democratic world, so our governments walk a fine line between offending Ch ina enough to be seen as taki ng a stand on human rights and global security issues, but not offending them enough to put trade at risk.

DipodomysDeserti > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/29/2020 at 19:51

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The local cops in Barcelona actually helped protect many protestors against the federal police.

Spain is a much freer country now than China. I wouldn’t compare the two.

Spain hasn’t disappeared critics in at least forty years.

Too bad there’s no ETA to take care of China’s dictators.

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > fintail 07/29/2020 at 19:53

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Oh, Jared.  lol

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > DipodomysDeserti 07/29/2020 at 19:56

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Ha, I’m glad you at least recognise their “Capitalism in the Communist name ”!

ClassicDatsunDebate > Distraxi's idea of perfection is a Jagroen 07/29/2020 at 20:05

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Yeah and see how that stance has worked for Canada lately.

China has set the trap and they are slowwwwwly closing it.  

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > DipodomysDeserti 07/29/2020 at 20:06

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Oh for sure, I didn’t mean to compare political freedom, I was just bringing up examples of attempts at secession, but I agree with your assessment above.

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > Distraxi's idea of perfection is a Jagroen 07/29/2020 at 20:32

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NZ certainly holds the moral high ground over the US, but then I suppose it’s also easier for a relatively small country to do that .

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > dogisbadob 07/29/2020 at 20:33

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Thanks for reading.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/29/2020 at 21:32

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Yet.

The first arrest under the new law  was of a man holding a banner.

SiennaMan > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/29/2020 at 21:32

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 This is why I don't feel like I have much room to talk.  In the US many people have so much freedom that they don't know what to do with it so they go about hurting other people.  Many others have so little freedom that they risk their lives if they go out after dark..

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 07/29/2020 at 21:56

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Sorry, I’ll take that bait . I’ve spent the past year differentiating fake news from the real so I’m rather sensitised .

The most vocal Hong Kongers in support of the protest movement are people like Joshua Wong, Agnes Chow, Benny Tai and Jimmy Lai . All of them are still in Hong Kong, some of them are out on bail for organising riots . The others are free, but they will no longer be able to jetset all over the world asking people to sanction China .

The first-wave Wuhan doc died from the disease, and was posthumously awarded by the Chinese government . Not sure which other doctors you claim are missing, but feel free to educate me .

And China already strong-armed Taiwan in 1996, when Taiwan held its first presidential election, by firing missiles into the Taiwan Strait. That kind of overtly threatening stuff tends to backfire . You can tell they remember that lesson by the lack of army deployment in spite of Hong Kong’s prolonged unrest.

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/29/2020 at 22:02

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The first person to be charged actually drove his motorcycle into the cops. That doesn’t sound like free speech to me. It was all caught on video.

Source:

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-crime/article/3091710/hong-kong-national-security-law-first-person-charged

For the other guy arrested and found to possess a banner, I doubt he will be charged for violating NSL. Unless they find other dirt on him such as membership of pro-secession groups, h e will probably be charged for social distancing violation and illegal assembly.

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > SiennaMan 07/29/2020 at 22:11

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Of course, we all have the freedom to debate politics. The social consequences of a debate that turns ugly is what keeps many of us quiet. That’s our own choice and we can be thankful that our justice system generally won’t bother us for speaking out at all.

I don’t even talk about Hong Kong on my personal social media, because a good number in my circles believe the fake news about mass killings in Hong Kong. I don’t care to play Mythbusters for them because it won’t change them. I also don’t want to out them because they do not try to stuff their views down my throat, and they are otherwise decent people.

So here I am. Our sick level of political discourse here in ‘Murica is roughly the same. Polarisation enabled by social media.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/29/2020 at 22:27

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Knock yourself out. I can’t defend the New York Times, but this kind of stuff they normally get basic facts right. As far as I know, these folks and their contacts in the medical research community have never surfaced.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/14/business/wuhan-coronavirus-journalists.html

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So you don’t find this kind of sobering? My GF and I have a number of dear friends, all UK expats, living in Hong Kong and deeply alarmed by the crackdowns. “Free movement of people and goods and ideas” is generally an accepted set of freedoms there.

Most residents, whether “chinese” by ethnicity or not, in Hong Kong most definitely do not consider themselves citizens of China. They are Hong Kong first and happy with two systems.

If China pulls this crap in Taiwan there will be trouble.

As for the virus, we know they canceled domestic flights in and out of Wuhan, even as they said nothing to the West.  I’m sure that’s “fake news” too.. which means it offends your view of the world.  Good luck.

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 07/29/2020 at 23:01

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Thanks for the dismissive attitude. I’m only fishing for facts, even if it doesn’t fit a narrative. You’ve shown examples of journalists, not doctors. Press freedom is an entirely different issue in China and it’s really another debate for another day.

To answer your question on whether I find Joshua Wong’s newfound limitations “sobering”: Bluntly, no, I do not. I imagine it this way: As an American, I would be a fool to go to, say, Germany, where the Chancellor and the executives of several major airlines are discussing a $20 billion purchase of new planes. Will Airbus or Boeing get it? Now, let me go and hijack this forum by showing a cleverly cut video illustrating police brutality and racial profiling in the United States. The video finishes with Trump making a snide comment about cracking down on Portland . As jaws drop, I proceed to ask the forum: “Why should we give so much business to a morally corrupt country that tramples on its own vulnerable citizens?”

Do you think I would be having dinner with FBI and CIA agents that same night, in an undisclosed location? I do, because I don’t think even the United States would grant me that kind of freedom—but feel free to disagree.

Regarding Wuhan, the Chinese government can and will shut down flights on a whim. We all know that. This was all reported in January. I’ve been reading Asian reports about the Wuhan outbreak itself since December. The US just chose to ignore this public information and the WHO chose to bury their heads in the sand. Look how Taiwan handled the pandemic, free of the WHO bureaucracy. They are now free of local outbreaks.

Have a good evening and let’s try to meet on a more cordial tone next time.

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/29/2020 at 23:20

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fair enough... i may have read more in to that than what was written

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 07/29/2020 at 23:25

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All good.  I’m always down for a friendly debate.

Distraxi's idea of perfection is a Jagroen > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/30/2020 at 00:04

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Oh definitely. I’m not claiming credit for that, or even claiming that we *do* hold the moral high ground; just observing that it’s part of the national self-image, for better or worse, just like “most democratic nation in the world”, “leader of the free world”, “only country that truly cares about freedom” are part of the US’s, regardless of how true they are. And that, j us t like the US, collectively we’re prepared to take a few hits to perpetuate our self-image.

Distraxi's idea of perfection is a Jagroen > ClassicDatsunDebate 07/30/2020 at 00:07

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Which is the basi c problem with China. Can’t appease them, can’t fight them, can’t resist their economic power: all you can do is hope that eventually the regime falls over under the weight of the expectations of its people.

ITA97, now with more Jag @ opposite-lock.com > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/30/2020 at 00:34

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Thanks for sharing. This kind of stuff is one of the things that makes Oppo so special. I’ve got a friend working as an international lawyer type in Shangh ai, and between things he writes on the book ‘o faces and posts like yours I deeply appreciate the personal perspectives that are often very different that is publicly presented for consumption about that part of the world.

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > Distraxi's idea of perfection is a Jagroen 07/30/2020 at 01:03

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I’d argue that China has already begun bending to the expectations of its people. Its domestic policies today are worlds away from what they were in the 1980s and 90s.

But I suppose you shouldn’t just take it from me. It’s something we will all have to wait and see for ourselves one way or another.

One dramatic change is the end of the one-child policy, for example. Doesn’t affect us, but you can bet it is a game changer for the Chinese.

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > ITA97, now with more Jag @ opposite-lock.com 07/30/2020 at 01:09

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Thanks for reading. As I grow older I’ve come to terms with a reality. Every nation attempts to steer its own “truth.” Goals clash even if they are both valid.

Because of my in-between cultural identity, I’m grateful to have and be able to share an in-between take on a topic that is usually presented as black-and-white. The real world is never that clear-cut, for sure .

Hope your friend is staying safe there. Shanghai’s got it under control but as we can all see, new outbreaks are still popping up in China as people re-import mutated strains of the virus. And when China says shut down, they mean it....!

This is what we'll show whenever you publish anything on Kinja: > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/30/2020 at 01:13

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https://globalnews.ca/news/7233223/hong-kong-security-law-arrests/

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > This is what we'll show whenever you publish anything on Kinja: 07/30/2020 at 01:19

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Yep. Bad time to set up a political party with a goal of secession. Might as well have named themselves the Cannon Fodder Party.  G oing down in a blaze of glory doesn’t mean they actually accomplished anything.

ClassicDatsunDebate > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/30/2020 at 01:34

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That’s the fundamental problem. The Chinese Communist party can placate their people with “liberal” domestic policy while engaging in nefarious foreign policy because they control the narrative very tightly.

The one child per family policy is obsolete when your plan is to colonize other parts of the world.

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > ClassicDatsunDebate 07/30/2020 at 01:46

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Sure, that’s a bit more cynical than where I land on the spectrum, but at least you’ve deline ated their foreign policy from their domestic governance .

ClassicDatsunDebate > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/30/2020 at 02:03

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It’s a real paradigm shift. I see China being the next colonial power of the 21 century.  I Hope the Chinese people embrace human rights and individual freedom before their government grasps major power.  But that’s the conundrum....the communist power is the root of their success around the world.  That systemic, coordinated plan isn’t as easy to execute in a democracy.

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > ClassicDatsunDebate 07/30/2020 at 02:11

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I’m very convinced that they learned from the failures of the Soviet Union. They avoided a financially draining arms race with the ‘Muricans while developing their domestic economy. But now they’re neither here nor there in terms of following the footsteps of past superpowers, and I suppose that’s what scares the incumbents. The desires of their increasingly knowledgeable and demanding  citizens are another unpredictable influence.

Nick Has an Exocet > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/30/2020 at 03:25

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https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2020/07/23/has-china-won-the-battle-for-hong-kong

I have a hard time listening to someone like Regina Ip and feeling anything but sympathy for HK. Any talk of “democracy” in HK is an outright lie. The CCP is a danger to the world on a level that we haven’t seen since Hitler’s Germany. Listen to that podcast and tell me that you don’t hear the words of the member of the High Command in 1939.

Nick Has an Exocet > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/30/2020 at 03:35

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Scotland is a bad analog, in my opinion. The better analog would be any of the former British empire states.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/30/2020 at 09:49

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Is SCMP still a trustworthy source ( Zhao Wei) ?

As to secession, freedom of speech means you can talk about it all you want, and freedom of assembly/association permits you to be a member of such a group, too, as long as their actions remain peaceful.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > ITA97, now with more Jag @ opposite-lock.com 07/30/2020 at 09:56

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My brother’s lived in Shanghai for the better part of a decade. Married a local, they have two kids. Riding out the pandemic Stateside with family. No clue when they’ll be able to go back.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > For Sweden 07/30/2020 at 09:56

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Well, if those cars are in Chery condition you are fine...

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/30/2020 at 10:03

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16 year old kid arrested...

Things that were legal to talk about a few weeks ago are no longer legal. Maybe they’ll criminalize thoughts next. Better not click on the wrong websites, or “like” the wrong posts on social media...

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Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/30/2020 at 11:24

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SCMP is my favourite English outlet in HK. They have a diverse editorial staff . Their chief editor Yonden Lhatoo is a very sharp Tibetan guy .

I’m glad you are bringing up examples. These people are being stopped at mass events because of social distancing. Emergency ordinances have set strict gathering limits. Cops will readily cite violators if it’s not at a protest event (violation of social distance), or arrest them if it is at a protest event (violation of illegal assembly).

Prosecutors will look at the evidence and throw every charge that might stick. A small minority of rioters end up actually being charged with rioting. Others are charged with illegal assembly. The vast majority walk free on insufficient evidence.

I should note that before Covid-19, the police did not object to about 80% of protest event notifications. Of course, with Covid it’s now closer to 0%.

As for online activity, you better not be associating with pro-secession groups. They picked up a couple of kids who established a “secession at any cost” party and formed a Facebook group to announce it. Otherwise, individuals have not been targeted for any particular speech. That’s probably the Twitter post you shared. My take is: These kids basically decided to be cannon fodder.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/30/2020 at 11:37

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secession - breaking away from the country

subversion - undermining the power or authority of the central government

terrorism - using violence or intimidation against people

collusion with foreign or external forces

Nothing about illegal assembly here. These people were arrested for breaching the National Security Law. They may not imprisoned, in the end, but they will be jailed, and for who knows how long? Regardless, it’s a way to make people fear speaking freely, doing the exact same thing they could do legally last month.

The message is, fall in line, follow our ruler-for-life, or be dealt with.

My very vocal friend in HK is now, for the most part, silenced, surely due to fear of imprisonment. He enjoyed decades of freedom, and now, this.

fintail > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/30/2020 at 12:35

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Son of a conman, son in law of a conman. And his daddy in law is no doubt insanely jealous of Jinping’s effective dictator status and the kleptocracy he presides over, so much opportunity for graft.

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > Nick Has an Exocet 07/30/2020 at 14:16

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I was in Hong Kong during its “golden years.” Nobody in my family knew what an “election” was. Contrast that with the very first week I started school in California—everybody was talking about elections. Democracy was a culture shock to us, and we hailed from the Old Hong Kong that people now put on a pedestal.

It’s fair to cast doubt on Hong Kong’s system (I do the same), but it has never, ever been as “democratic” as it is now. Just a historical point of reference.

Carrie Lam and Regina Ip served under Britain and made their names in those golden years. In their youth, they saw their government suppress the 1967 riots, killing dozens for “national security.” They are a product of their environment.

I notice Ip commented on Nathan Law’s age. People hate being called children; Carrie Lam made a similar comment about the protests last year and she was skewered into apologising. I find Nathan Law generally disagreeable, but age has nothing to do with it.

My TL;DR: What we see now is basically how Britain ran Hong Kong as a colony. The system lacks accountability for HK’s various problems and is outdated for the 21st century. Not all of that is China’s fault.

Actually, I’d like to read into what the Nazis said in 1939. I must admit I am unfamiliar with German politics of that era, other than their penchant for invasions and genocide.

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 07/30/2020 at 14:35

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You’re extrapolating a lot of things in Hong Kong to be related to Xi Jinping. He is about ten degrees of separation away from what the Hong Kong Police choose to do or not do.

The charges might stick. They might not, and the cops will learn their lessons.

In the meantime, the vast majority of people arrested are out on bail.

If you’re really into plotting secession, then you’re right, you probably shouldn’t be pursuing that hobby in places like Hong Kong and Catalonia.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/30/2020 at 14:47

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Maybe, but he’s ultimately in charge, is he not? He clearly wants all of China under the same system (control), so HK’s freedoms and autonomy were always doomed. It was just a matter of time.

Here’s the fact: the Hong Kong that I visited no longer exists.

You say “plotting secession”, but all these people really want are the freedoms they had up until one month ago. Unfortunately, the only way to get that back, at this point, seems to be through independence.

Distraxi's idea of perfection is a Jagroen > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/30/2020 at 16:42

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No argument from me - they’ve made enormous cha n ges. They question is whether they’ll be able to keep on making them at the rate their citizens will demand, without losing control. People will tolerate a dictatorship as long as their living situation keeps improving, and China’s delivered on that for years. But there comes a point where e ither you can’t keep up an acceptable rate of improve ment, or the population have a good enough economic situation that their minds turn to other ways their lives could be better, and at that point the government better have some creative solutions. It’s the problem Gorbachev faced in the Soviet Union - increasing expectations compounded by no money due to a US-forced arms race. Perestroika and glasnost was his attempt to give the people other benefits , but it didn’t work out.

Who knows if that’ll ever happen in China - it’s a different culture, and a different economic and political situation. Y our guess is no doubt better than mine. Singapore has proved that in th at part of the world even a wealthy and educated populace will t olerate a police state if it’s a carefully managed one. But it’s certainly going to be interesting times for all of us if the wheels come off....

Nick Has an Exocet > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 07/30/2020 at 18:16

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Thanks, that’s good insight. My family has always been a bunch of history buffs - particularly WWII.

When it comes to pre-WWII Nazi Germany, one can say that the road to hell was paved with good intentions. Nazi Germany has a slightly broader version of the US’s “manifest destiny”. Broadly, you can define that as a cultural belief in the right to expansion. Nazi Germany certainly believed that it’s expansion was right and just. The US has always believed a similar thing but has a constantly shifting bar as to what is an acceptable aggression level (situation specific). The CCP played by similar rules to the US right up until they didn’t. “The rules only apply when they benefit China” is undertone of the last 10 years of dealing with the CCP. That’s one way they’ve been able to take advantage of the West (and in particular the US). The US generally sticks to the deal that it struck. It will push hard initially, but once the deal is done, the terms are set and that’s it unless there’s a renegotiation.

Honestly, Chinese culture around deals, money, and property are quite incongruous to western ideas (or even middle eastern or other asian countries ). It’s hard for a lot of people (myself included) to wrap our heads around them. It’s exhausting. It’s as if t he US prefers to put all the thinking up front to make the deal but China views the deal as a starting place for the real game to start. The Nazi party was a lot more straight forward as it was a Western country but with a religious pursuit of expansion (which was part of their downfa ll, really).  

The last thing that I will add, is that the CCP and Nazi party have quite a bit in common around “thought domination”. Deviants are only tolerated for a time. The difference being that a s time went on (compare 1940s to 1930s) , the Nazi party demanded more and more stringent controls as C hina has eased up a bit on speech. Haaaaaving said that, that the Uyghurs situation seems to be a troubling counterpoint and an indication that the easing up on speech in China has been another means to an end rather than a change in true ideals.